Economic insights: January 2025

在房地产行业，紧跟市场趋势当然至关重要，但全球经济趋势也同样重要，因为它不仅影响房地产，还影响日常生活的方方面面。

请访问Luxury Portfolio International 了解最新信息，世界领先房地产公司首席经济学家 Marci Rossell 博士将在这里分享她在过去一个月中的五大见解。

1. Quarter century retrospective

Reflecting on the past quarter century, we see significant changes and some constants since the year 2000. Back then, Bill Clinton was the U.S. President, and Alan Greenspan chaired the Federal Reserve.

China had not yet joined the WTO, and the euro was only traded electronically. The U.S. and EU economies were roughly the same size.

Notably, Vladimir Putin, elected in 2000, remains a significant world leader.

Globally, GDP has tripled from $33 trillion to over $100 trillion, lifting many out of poverty. In the U.S., GDP per capita nearly doubled from $36K to $67K, with unemployment rates remaining stable around 4%.

The S&P 500 has grown over three times since 2000, significantly boosting retirees’ portfolios. The 10-year treasury rate dropped from 6.7% to 4.6%, reflecting a long-term decline in inflation and an increase in global savings.

Existing home sales have declined by 20%, from 5 million to 4 million annually, despite lower mortgage rates and a higher population. Additionally, the global population has aged significantly, with a notable increase in the over-65 population, particularly impacting economies like Japan, Germany, Italy and China.

2. Consumer confidence puzzle

Despite higher incomes, GDP per capita, stable labor markets, lower inflation and a booming stock market, Americans’ consumer confidence has declined from its peak in 2000 of 111.4 to 74 today. Post-pandemic inflation spikes in 2021 and 2022 have left a lasting impact on consumer perceptions, creating a disconnect between economic reality and sentiment.

3. China and Europe

China, once predicted to surpass the U.S. economy, faces challenges due to a lack of rule of law, strong property rights and a declining population. The U.S. GDP has pulled ahead of both the EU and China.

The EU’s economy has struggled with debt crises and population decline, causing the gap between U.S. and EU economic growth to widen. Declining populations in Japan, Germany, Italy and China pose significant economic challenges, with China’s population expected to halve by 2100.

4. Big predictions for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, financial markets rallied at election news, with expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration. However, treasury bonds moved in the opposite direction, indicating higher interest rates.

The latest inflation report shows a 2.9% rate, with tariffs and enhanced deportations expected to drive inflation higher. Policies are split between business-promoting and business-harming effects.

Mortgage rates are predicted to remain around 7%, already pricing in worst-case scenarios.

5. Housing inventory and AI impact

America is approaching “Peak 65,” with around 4 million Americans turning 65 over the next two years. This demographic shift is expected to drive increased demand for second homes and retirement relocations.

The new administration’s promise to deport 1-2 million people annually would significantly constrain housing inventory, though the new director of housing and urban development has identified housing inventory as a critical issue.

Furthermore, the aging U.S. population and the rise of AI will place enormous stress on the power infrastructure, necessitating substantial investments to meet future demands.

作为 LeadingRE 的首席经济学家，Marci Rossell 博士探索全球经济、政策和政治如何直接或间接地影响房地产行业和我们的日常生活。作为 CNBC 的前首席经济学家和奥本海默基金公司（OppenheimerFunds）的企业经济学家，Rossell 博士在分析经济市场方面有着良好的记录。